A tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico continues to grab our attention as we head into the upcoming weekend. As of this post, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance about a 70% chance of developing into a named storm over the next 24 to 48 hours. If that were to happen, it would be given the name Debby.
Hurricane Reconnaissance was scheduled to fly into this system today, but ended up canceling their flight. The reason for the cancellation had to do with the fact it still remained very disorganized and would have been a waste of time and money. However, if this broad area of low pressure gets better organized this weekend, they will fly into the system and investigate it even further.
Models All Over the Place
Many of our tropical computer models are having a difficult time in predicting where this system will go in the days ahead.
Earlier in the week, a majority of the models took this area of low pressure and tropical moisture into Florida. Now, some of the models are starting to trend more westward, possibly bringing it towards the central Gulf coast states or even into South Texas.
Our in house Adonis model, as seen in the image to your right, shows an area of low pressure sitting south of New Orleans by Sunday evening.
The bottom line is that until we get better data into our models (that's what the hurricane hunters will provide), it's pretty much a holding pattern as to what will transpire next week.