Ernesto has weakened, remains very disorganized - | Lufkin and Nacogdoches, Texas

Ernesto has weakened, remains very disorganized

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The forecast track for Ernesto has shifted further to the south and away from Texas.  (Source:  National Hurricane Center) The forecast track for Ernesto has shifted further to the south and away from Texas. (Source: National Hurricane Center)

Tropical Storm Ernesto has weakened over the past 24 hours, with sustained winds dropping from 60 mph to 50 mph.  A combination of dry air and wind shear has really kept him disorganized and has prevented him from strengthening further.  Due to these factors, Ernesto may not become a hurricane, instead, only maintaining tropical storm status.

Ernesto is still expected to impact the Yucatan Peninsula late Tuesday, and then possible re-emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

A Shift in the Track

The forecast track has taken a significant shift towards the south and away from Texas.  The latest forecast path has Ernesto likely targeting central or northern Mexico by next Friday or Saturday.

If this scenario plays out, we would be spared from any significant impacts.  Since we would be on the eastern and northern side of the storm, we could get some rain showers, but that would be the extent of our impacts.

Not Out of the Woods Just Yet

Even though a majority of our computer models take the storm into Mexico, we still have a couple of our more reliable models that want to take it towards the upper Texas coast and the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Until these outliers change face, we will still have to watch Ernesto closely as we progress through the week.

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