Showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms look to put a bit of a damper on any plans East Texans may have this weekend. Since Friday, some isolated parts of East Texas have already received an estimated 3 inches of new rain, and it looks like more could be on the way throughout the weekend.
A couple of different features are playing a role in the widespread precipitation that we have been seeing over the past day or so. A surface boundary over of East Texas is helping to focus some of the shower activity to the south of this boundary, which is where we are seeing some of the heaviest rain. This is where more of the low level moisture is in place. There is also an upper level disturbance that is helping force some of the air over south-central Texas to lift and produce more shower activity. While severe weather is not looking to play a key role in this weekend's weather pattern, it cannot be ruled out.
These showers look to continue through parts of the weekend with some locations receiving some heavy rain totals. The picture to the right is a model output of forecasted rainfall over parts of Texas. This is indicating over 4 inches of new rain will fall in parts of southeastern Texas from Friday night until Sunday evening. While East Texas won't get the heaviest rain, we still look to get a good soaking. Many of the models are indicating between 1/2" to well over 4 inches in total from Friday night until Sunday evening. Localized flooding is a very real possibility with these showers, which is why we must all remember that if you are on the roadways and you see water collecting, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. The rain looks to end sometime on Sunday evening or Monday as this disturbance moves to our East.
This recent rain looks to make a decent dent in the current drought we are seeing here in East Texas. While we are in much better shape right now than we were this time last year, we are still a little bit behind on rainfall. As of Friday, September 28th, Tyler is 7 inches below normal for the year, Longview is 6 inches below and Lufkin is 1/2 an inch below normal. With the below normal rainfall, parts of East Texas have fallen into a slight drought. The second figure to the right shows the current drought monitor. Most of East Texas is doing fine, but some counties are needing more rain. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a few counties are abnormally dry and a select couple are in a moderate drought. Hopefully the rain that we get this weekend will help out that situation.