An approaching cold front looks to produce some showers and
thunderstorms Sunday evening, after that a major cool down is coming to
East Texas.
A cold front has been pushing closer to East Texas over the past few
days and looks to move through Sunday evening, with it coming a few
showers and thunderstorms. This front is in association with an upper
level trough that has not done much over the past few weeks, but this
trough looks to "dig" further south. Usually when this happens, it helps
to amplify the intensity of storms on the downwind side of the trough.
This is what is shaping up for us.
Some of these storms could be severe with the biggest threat being
hail and damaging winds. Ample moisture and instability will aid the
development of hail. Some tornadoes are possible, but the threat is
still very small. While there is some wind shear (turning winds with
height and changing wind speeds with height), it is not all that
sufficient to support tornado development. But again tornadoes are not
out of the question. Some locally heavy rain is also possible with these
storms. Three diagrams depict the chances for these threats in this
story.
As these storms develop, some of the models have been indicating that
it could develop into a squall line. A squall line is a linear line of
showers and thunderstorms which are known for producing strong damaging
winds at the surface.
After these storms move through, a big cool down will follow on
Monday and Tuesday. We're talking highs in the middle to upper 40s, and
lows in the upper 20s. A Canadian air-mass (continental polar air mass,
which is a cold and dry air mass) will filter in behind the front over
the next few days, mainly due to the northerly winds that will be
howling as high as 20mph and gusting as high as 30mph. Some of the
models have been indicating a little bit of a mixed precip. falling
behind this front first thing Monday morning. The chances for this
happening are slim to none, but we'll keep it mentioned in the forecast.
Don't forget you can track these storms throughout the evening using our interactive radar. Also be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast and our facebook pages: KTRE 9, Brett Collar, Brad Hlozek and Grant Dade.
Copyright 2012 KTRE. All rights reserved.
Precisioncast model run Saturday evening.
Storm Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Hail Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Wind Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Tornado Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
