A very strong and potent Pacific storm system will be pulling into the state of Texas tonight and on Saturday, providing the eastern third of the state with a chance of severe weather.
For us in Deep East Texas, our rain chances will be going up overnight, but the best chances for heavy thunderstorms and possible severe weather won't arrive until the mid-to-late morning hours on Saturday and continuing through the afternoon hours.
This system will come at us in two waves. The first wave will consist of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the mid-morning hours. It is this first wave that has a small tornado threat, considering these storms will be isolated and have their own environment to work with. Due to the extreme wind shear in place, any of these isolated storms will have the chance to rotate and produce a tornado.
The second wave or round of thunderstorms will more than likely consist of a squall line. This line of storms will provide a damaging, straight line wind threat to the Piney Woods as it quickly races off to the east.
Here are the estimated arrival times for the squall line as it moves through the Piney Woods (see image).
12 Noon-2pm--Palestine, Crockett, Grapeland, Lovelady, Groveton, Trinity
2pm-4pm--Mount Enterprise, Nacogdoches, Lufkin, Corrigan, Livingston
4pm-6pm--Center, Milam, Hemphill, Jasper, Newton, Pineland, Bronson
It should be noted that these are estimated arrival times for a reason. Should the system speed up or slow down, these times are subject to change. But based on various model trends, these two hour windows should match up fairly well.
Due to the timing of this storm, the worst of the weather should remain off to our east (see SPC image). The orange shading represents a "moderate" risk of severe weather and includes most of Louisiana and Mississippi. It does, however, edge into Sabine, Shelby and Jasper counties in our KTRE viewing area. The key thing to take away from this image is that the further east you get from Highway 59, the more unstable the atmosphere will be, and therefore, the more likely the damaging wind threat will be higher. So areas in and around the Sabine River need to heed warnings quickly, should they be issued on Saturday.
In the meantime, we have a couple of important tools you should have on hand so that you can stay on top of any severe weather developments on Saturday.
Our KTRE weather app. gives you access to Interactive radar, alerts you to any severe weather, and allows you to easily submit your weather photos to our photo gallery on ktre.com.
We also have ThunderCall, which is a free service where we personally call you should a tornado, severe thunderstorm, or flash flood warning be issued for your specific zip code and place of residence.
Please keep it tuned to KTRE-TV and ktre.com for further updates. You can also get timely and up-to-date information through our Facebook and Twitter pages. Just search KTREweather.
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