For the first time since Tropical Storm Bill brought flooding rains to the Texas Forest Country in mid-June, we have widespread, soaking rains finally returning to the forecast over the weekend and continuing into early next week. Considering we have severe-to-extreme drought conditions in place, this heavy rain event could not have come at a better time.
This widespread rain event is something we have been growing ever more confident in over the past few days due to several factors coming together.
Low pressure will move in from the desert southwest. This will help aid in triggering showers and thunderstorms across the Lone Star state. In addition to the storm system moving in, there are a couple of additional features that takes us from just seeing scattered rain to widespread, heavy rainfall for much of the state.
Deep, Gulf moisture will help increase the rainfall rates, but the big wild card is the additional moisture supply we will receive from Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific.
History has shown us that anytime we have an ample supply of Pacific moisture tapping into the storm systems moving into the state, we tend to see heavy, flooding rainfall events unfold.
While we may not necessarily see flooding rains, we will be adding up the rain in buckets and in the form of multiple inches before it is all said and done by the middle of next week.
There are areas, however, that will be prone to flooding rains this weekend and this includes a large chunk of north and North Central Texas. Many areas along the Interstate 35 corridor could end up receiving anywhere from seven-to-ten inches of rain, with some areas possibly coming in with a foot of rain before it winds down early next week.
For us in Deep East Texas, we are looking at two-to-four inches of rain on average, with some neighborhoods possibly receiving even higher amounts. With a very parched and dry ground, runoff will not be much of an issue. The other thing working in our favor that says flash flooding should be not a huge threat at this time is the fact this rain will be falling over a three-to-four day period. The breaks or lulls in between the pockets of rain moving through should help the moisture settle in the soils.
Our chances of rain will ramp up on Friday, when we will have a 50% chance of rainfall during the day. We will then see the chances of getting wet climb to 70% on Saturday before they peak out at 80% on Sunday and Monday.
With our highest rain chances returning to Deep East Texas for the first time in over four months, make sure you stay prepared and ahead of the game. Your best bet for doing that is having our FREE, KTRE weather app. available for your perusal. Our weather app. gives you access to our interactive radar, weather alerts, and allows you to get a daily and hourly forecast, right in the palm of your hand.
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