EAST TEXAS (KLTV/KTRE) - A First Alert Weather Day has been issued for East Texas for Sunday night through Monday morning. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely impact East Texas late on Sunday, with the best chance of severe storms forming north of Interstate 20. The severe threat for Deep East Texas is low, however, the line of strong thunderstorms moving through during morning hours will still be very disruptive so the First Alert Weather Day is in effect for all of East Texas. Timing is difficult and will likely change slightly by tomorrow night but for now, the window for severe weather looks to be the late evening/overnight hours into the late morning on Monday as the storms track south through the area.
The Set Up:
An upper-level disturbance and strong cold front are on track to move into north Texas and southern Oklahoma tomorrow evening. Ahead of this system, southerly winds will pick back up by tomorrow afternoon, feeding moisture and further destabilizing our atmosphere. Latest analysis from the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday night/Monday morning places our northernmost counties in a Level 2 Slight Risk of severe weather, and a Level 1 Marginal risk of severe weather along and just south of Interstate 20. We could still see an isolated severe storm in Deep East Texas as the front moves through, but conditions further south currently don’t seem to be as charged. A few showers/t’showers could develop in Deep East Texas during the afternoon but most of East Texas is looking to stay dry during the majority of the day. A strong cap will sit over our northern counties and will inhibit storm growth in the afternoon. If a storm is allowed to break through the cap by late afternoon/early evening, then we could see an isolated severe storm with a greater hail threat.
Something important to note on timing: The past few cold fronts that came through East Texas have made a habit of arriving ahead of schedule by a couple of hours, so it would be best to be prepared as early as Sunday evening.
A few showers/thundershowers could possibly in Deep East Texas throughout the day on Sunday, slowly traveling north along a sea breeze before fizzling out after sunset. A few quiet hours before the main line moves into East Texas around midnight. As the cold front travels south, the line of strong to severe thunderstorms should be in our central counties around 4am-7am, before pushing into Deep East Texas by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Again, this is a very broad window of time and the timeline could change by tomorrow evening, so be sure to stay weather alert and continue checking into the forecast throughout the day tomorrow for the latest information.
The current set up looks to be similar to the past couple of cold fronts that have arrived during the overnight hours but this time with a bit more energy in our atmosphere. The primary threat is still going to be damaging winds associated with the main line of storms with a few stronger cells developing large hail. The tornado threat is low but it is not at zero. We could also see a few areas see some very heavy rainfall as the front moves through, but if the line of storms keeps a decent pace then flash flooding won’t be much of a concern.
As is typical with these organized lines of stronger storms, damaging gusty winds could knock out power as the storms roll through. Make sure to keep those phones charged just in case your power goes out and download the KLTV/KTRE First Alert Weather Apps. They are free and are a very important tool to stay updated on the weather and warnings near you. Stay safe and weather aware. We will continue to monitor this situation and update you if anything changes.