EAST TEXAS (KLTV/KTRE) - A large portion of East Texas has been upgraded to a Marginal Risk (Risk 1/5) for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Our strong southerly flow will continue to add instability and moisture into East Texas, and the wind profile will likely support isolated supercell development with the help of an upper-level disturbance and our next strong cold front. Isolated damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.
A very low end tornado threat has also been noted by the Storm Prediction Center. This set up has a lot of uncertainty to it and the window for severe weather in East Texas is contained mainly to the later afternoon hours, before the system pushes east into Louisiana.
Another similar set up is likely for Friday for the western edge of East Texas and Central/North Texas and Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop along a dry line west of Dallas before strengthening and pushing east, with another upper-level system moving in and creating an environment suitable for strong supercells. This will be a “wait and see” set up for East Texas as conditions aren’t nearly as suitable for severe weather development in East Texas and for us to see any of these storms will depend on how long the storms out west can sustain their strength before moving into our area.
All modes of severe weather are possible but not guaranteed. This is pretty far out in the forecast period so you have plenty of time to be prepared for a possible severe weather event. No hype, just a heads up with a little extra time. Lots can change from now until then so keep a close eye on the forecast and stay weather alert before making any important travel plans.