LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Texas Tech University and University of Texas in Austin have created epidemiological COVID-19 models that have made predictions on a national, state and local scale.
As a county, UT researchers predict that there is a 63% chance that Lubbock’s trauma service area will exceed intensive care unit within three weeks, specifically by Nov. 8.
As of Thursday, Lubbock’s TSA is on the fourth day exceeding the governor’s 15% threshold of covid-19 patients in hospitals. Region B, which included Lubbock County, is at 18.14%.
Texas Tech Assistant research professor Zeina Khan helped create the SQUIDER model back in June, which is recognized and used by the CDC. The SQUIDER model predicts future COVID-19 cases and death count on a state and national scale.
On a national scale, the model predicts at least a thousand deaths a day and six thousand new cases daily. Compared to the numbers in June, this is half of what we saw in the original national outbreak.
Texas is expected to peak in coming months.
“What we take into account is our current infectious behavior. So based on how things look now, we might see a peak in March, April, but that could of course change," Khan said.
Behavior will play a huge role in these predictions because these models only go by the current infectious behavior. The holidays and winter weather will change our behavior.
“Behavior can absolutely affect the outcome. For example, if people hold thanksgiving get togethers we can expect the numbers to go beyond what we have predicted. There is no thanksgiving in our model," Khan said.